Where the wind is in October

October moves the map north, and it is the only month of the year that does. The Nordeste trade is still at full strength and the Peruvian thermal has not switched off. The change worth booking around is the Baltic and the North Sea, where the autumn depressions arrive and the shares climb 20 to 30 points on September.

Same number as last month: the share of days carrying at least three consecutive hours over 12 knots, modelled from a high-resolution 2023-2024 archive. Three hours is a session rather than a squall, and the model describes the sky over the spot rather than a pole in the sand. A destination's number belongs to one of its spots, and I name which.

Brazil's Nordeste coast

Ilha do Guajiru holds 100%, and Almofala up the coast carries it with the strongest October daily-max average here, 19.5 knots. That is Alísios, running 25-30 knots on the Torrões to Almofala downwind with a thermal push building through the day.

Jericoacoara is also 100%, on Guriú again, 15-25 kt and stronger after lunch. The model puts the windiest hour at 14:00, which is when everyone is already out.

Taíba makes three at 100%, and its own beach reads differently: an easterly, a daily-max average of 17.0 knots, and the peak hour at noon rather than mid-afternoon. Its high season runs 18-32 kt. Canoa Quebrada at 98% carries Ceará from Parajuru to Fortim on 14-22 kt, and October is the last month before Canoa drops to 78% in November while Guriú stays at 98.

Lagoinha is the fifth name on this coast at 92%, on 18-30 knots of trade wind reinforced by the thermal through the July-to-January high season. It slides to 83% in November, so October is its month rather than a staging post to one.

Peru

Pacasmayo tops the coast at 98% on its own break. The southerly thermal covers almost every day at 12-25 knots, the season average is about 18 knots, and clear sky means stronger and cleaner wind while cloud blunts it.

Máncora is 97%, and the spot is Lobitos. Midday there can still be 13-16 knots before the afternoon build, with Baterias next door at 16-22. Paracas takes 94% at Laguna Grande, 15-25 kt, and the Paraca days that pass 30 arrive as sandstorms.

The Red Sea coast

Hurghada is the strongest of the three at 85%, carried by Makadi Bay at 15-25 kt of Red Sea thermal. October closes the spot's March-to-October window, so this is the last full month.

Marsa Alam sits at 84% on the North Channel, 12-30 on the thermal. El Gouna is 77% at Moevenpick, 15-25 kt in the main season, and it is the one to book now rather than later: November takes it to 50%.

Northern Europe switches on

Hel Peninsula - Chałupy goes from 57% in September to 82% in October, on Kuźnica, with a daily-max average of 19.3 knots. A good Hel day is 15-25 kt and the club moves to Kuźnica on N, NE or NW.

Neuharlingersiel & Schillig is 77% at Schillig, 12-25 kt, and October is one of the spot's own best months. Hvide Sande reaches 74% at Hvide Sande Nord, where the station has averaged 14 kt of wind and 19 kt of gusts since 1999 and 16-22 kt is the range the spot wants.

Ostsee, from Falckensteiner Strand to Surendorf, takes 73% at Bülker Leuchtturm. The long Baltic swell lines only start running from about 6 Bft, roughly 22-27 knots, and the forecast off Strande tends to under-read by one to two Beaufort.

Fehmarn at 69% and Jastarnia at 68% fill in behind it. St. Peter-Ording takes 66% at Meldorf Speicherkoog, where the long-run average is near 10 knots and the sessions come off the frontal days above it, roughly 15-25 knots.

Africa's Atlantic coast

Dakhla drops from 95% in September to 79%, on El Argoub, for which nobody has published a knot range. Oyster Farm, 76% for the same month, gives the local shape instead: 15-25 knots generally and 18-25 in the main season.

Lüderitz is 71% at Guano Bay against 87% last month, and the daily-max average holds at 19.2 knots where September gave 21.3. Summer afternoons around town run over 40 km/h, about 22 kt, and southern Lüderitz reaches 30-45 kt. Up the coast Walvis Bay takes 65% at Donkey Bay, which can reach about 45 knots on the same Benguela-current thermal. November takes it to 48%.

The southern spring

Noumea holds 81% at Ilot Signal, 15-22 knots of Alizés with the afternoon the strong half of the day. Wait a month and it is 93%.

Auckland climbs to 77% at Shakespeare Regional Park, 15-30 knots. Melbourne is 73% at St Kilda on a southerly to south-westerly sea breeze of 10-25 kt, though the spot's own best months are January to March. Durban takes 68% at uMdloti, where the August-to-January north-easterly runs 15-25 kt. Matanzas is 65% on the Surazo at 15-25 kt, and it keeps climbing to 78% in November.

Who should wait

Anyone with an Indian Ocean flight booked. Mahé falls from 95% to 40% at North East Point as the southeast trade season ends, and Kalpitiya from 93% to 53% on the lagoon, then to 18% in November. Poste Lafayette keeps the Mauritius north coast at 56%, which is a holiday rather than a wind trip.

The same warning covers the two famous thermals. San Francisco Bay goes from 87% to 37% at Crissy Field, and Hood River reads 24% at Mosier. Europe has nothing to offer either: Lo Stagnone is 19% and Karpathos 47%, well past the Meltemi.

The sharpest of them is Mui Ne at 8%, where the northeast monsoon has not arrived: the spot's own best months start in November, and by November it is at 65%.